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Bob and Arlene
This is a hypothetical scenario in which how I imagine it will be when the formation of Tropical Storm Arlene occurs. Prologue Bobnekaro sat right in front of his laptop on February 25, 2017. He was very tropically depressed. He longed to track an Atlantic storm. The last one he was able to track was Hurricane Otto back in late November, which became the latest Atlantic major hurricane on record. While the Southern Hemisphere has had a few storms since then, Bobnekaro just does not find them nearly as exciting as Atlantic ones. Throughout the month of February he began to post "I want ARLENE" in HHW chat, with the standard response "+1." He thought of an idea that would make him less tropically depressed: writing a hypothetical story where Arlene formed. The Road To Arlene Day 1: May 31, 2017 It was May 31, 2017. One day until the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Bobnekaro comes home from school, his last day of high school. It was a strange feeling. He did not know what to think about it, since he would not see most of those people ever again. He pulls up his phone on the way home, and visits Tropical Tidbits. Hour 192 of the 12z ECMWF run intrigues him: it shows a tropical storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It had a pressure of 999 mb, and it instantly put a smile on his face. Bobnekaro tells himself "hmm...it's probably just a ghost storm." He later checks the 12z GFS model, only to see nothing. The 18z GFS runs. No Arlene is shown. Bobnekaro begins to think that the 12z ECMWF was likely an anomaly run. Later, Bobnekaro heads to HHW, and they count down until June 1 begins in UTC. June 1 arrives...in UTC...the long wait is over! But he didn't think there would be any development just yet. The Road To Arlene Day 2: June 1, 2017 Now off from school, Bobnekaro chooses to stay up late that night. He stays up until 3:00 AM for him to watch the 00z ECMWF run. Sadly, the 00z ECMWF only shows a weak low with no well-defined circulation. Depressed, Bobnekaro falls asleep. He wakes up the next morning, very excited now that it was June 1, but a little depressed that the 00z ECMWF dropped Arlene. Bobnekaro then heads over to McDonald's for lunch that day, where he watches the 12z ECMWF run. At hour 168...a tropical cyclone is shown in the Gulf of Mexico. Bobnekaro begins to think that Arlene could be in the near future after all. The 18z GFS showed a broad low pressure area, but no tropical cyclone. However, the 8:00 PM tropical weather outlook did not give him much hope. It read: There was no yellow crayon. Not yet at least. But the fact that it was no longer offseason made Bobnekaro somewhat happier. Based on most pre-season forecasts, a slightly below-normal season was anticipated because a weak El Nino was possible, but not definite. Bobnekaro had a little bit of hope for the possible Gulf of Mexico system, but it was still a little ways out on the models. Bobnekaro stays up for the 00z GFS, and discovers something: it is developing a 1005 mb tropical storm now in about 156 hours! That instantly made Bobnekaro a happier person. The Road To Arlene Day 3: June 2, 2017 Bobnekaro wakes up the next day. He checks the 8AM Tropical Weather Outlook, only to get the same result. It read: The NHC had not taken notice...yet. Bobnekaro then pulled up Weather.com, which had an article that said: "Tropical Storm May Form In Eastern Gulf Of Mexico Next Week." This is when Bobnekaro realized that the Gulf system indeed had a chance to develop. Bobnekaro then pulled up the 00z ECMWF run, which, once again, showed a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico, this time a 1001 mbar one with maximum winds of about 50 mph at hour 144. It also showed development beginning around hour 120. He then also looked at the 06Z GFS, which was developing a 1006 mbar tropical depression in the same area, but slightly farther out at around hour 150. The timeline of the system was moving up. Bobnekaro knew it had a chance to develop. There was lots of speculation about this system on the Wunderblogs, as well as HHW. The 2PM Tropical Weather Outlook, however, was still the same. Bobnekaro then watched the 12z ECMWF run, which, for the third run in a row, showed a tropical cyclone developing with a minimum pressure of 1000 mb this run. The 12z GFS trended stronger and was now showing a 1004 mbar tropical storm instead of a tropical depression, with development occurring at around 132 hours. Bobnekaro began to get very excited. He then watched the 18z GFS, which now showed a 1003 mbar tropical storm! He also checked the 12z CMC and NAVGEM, which both showed a 992 mbar hurricane, but that is to be expected with those models. At this point, Bobnekaro wanted the yellow crayon, but since most models did not show development until after 120 hours he would not see it yet. He was right, with the 8PM TWO reading: Bobnekaro decided to go to bed somewhat earlier that evening and decided not to stay up for any night model runs. He easily fell asleep that evening. The Road To Arlene Day 4: June 3, 2017 Bobnekaro woke up at 7:52 AM, unusually early for him, and decided to check the NHC page. As soon as he opened the page, he saw "Tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The Next 48 Hours" but then he decided to open up the tropical weather outlook to see what it actually read. Bobnekaro nearly passed out as it read the following words: ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad low pressure area may form over the northwestern Caribbean or southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conductive for some slow development of this system, and a tropical cyclone could form by the middle of next week as the low continues to move slowly northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent Forecaster Stewart Bobnekaro was still in shock. Stewart had brought out the yellow crayon for the first time of the season for the Atlantic basin. It was so exciting. He then went to check the 00z ECMWF and 06z GFS, both of which showed a 1000 mb TS in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico with development beginning at around 120 hours. The CMC model showed development beginning as early as 72 hours, in the western Caribbean. This was an exciting moment. Bobnekaro then waited for the 2PM Tropical Weather Outlook, which increased the chances of development to 30%. This is when Bobnekaro realized something: the offseason was over. He had waited tirelessly for over 6 months for this moment. His tropical depression had a chance to be cured. It really did. After the 2PM TWO, he then checked the 12z ECMWF run, which was slightly weaker but still showed the formation of Tropical Storm Arlene. The consensus was growing strong with the development of a tropical cyclone. Bobnekaro still thought he was in a dream. The 18z GFS and NAVGEM runs also showed development. It was becoming a trend. Arlene was on the way, and Bobnekaro began to realize it. The 8PM TWO increased development chances to 40%. NHC had gotten out their orange crayon. Bobnekaro continued to be in his best mood in a long time. The Road To Arlene Day 5: June 4, 2017 Bobnekaro woke up the next morning. He saw that chances had now risen to 0/50 on the Tropical Weather Outlook. Here comes Arlene, he began to think. Immediately after waking up, Bobnekaro went to the website with TC Genesis probabilities, and it showed a red X with the number "97%." This is when it all got real. Later that day, shortly after lunchtime, Bobnekaro visited the Current Storms section on Tropical Tidbits and was greeted with these words: Invest 90L As of 18:00 UTC Jun 4, 2017: Location: 18.0°N 84.2°W Maximum Winds: 20 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb WE HAD AN INVEST! It was so exciting. 90L was here. The offseason was now nothing more than a distant memory. The 8PM TWO that evening had increased development chances to 20% in 48 hours, and 70% in 5 days. Bob struggled to sleep that evening because he believed Arlene was on the way. Category:Hypothetical Stories